I specialize in modeling of infectious diseases, with a emphasis on developing new methods for forecasting infectious disease emergence and elimination.
I am broadly interested in critical phenomena in epidemiology and ecology. I integrate stochastic processes, bifurcation theory and fast-slow dynamical systems theory to model the dynamics of epidemiological systems near a critical transition. I also collaborate extensively with ecologists to characterize disease emergence in multi-host disease systems.
Some of the projects I have worked on include developing theory for anticipating infectious disease emergence and elimination based on the phenomenon of critical slowing down, investigating how competition and contact patterns influence infectious disease risk in multi-host communities and modeling the spread of white nose syndrome, an emerging infectious disease of bats. I have used a variety of theoretical approaches to investigate these issues, including tools from nonlinear dynamics, stochastic differential equations, time series analysis and network modeling.